March 15th Daily Market Comments

The T-line continues to be an important trend factor. What does it mean when the Dow is trading in decisively and sideways right at the T-line? It means the market is not moving in any great direction. Simple visual analysis reveals the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 trading backup above the T-line, waffling back and forth. The transportation index has been selling off hard for the past two weeks but trading positive today.

Trending Stocks: GCO, INCY, LHCG, PRSC, PRTA, WLDN

Genesco Inc. (GCO)

Chart for GCO

Over the next 13 weeks, Genesco Inc. has on average historically risen by 11.6% based on the past 31 years of stock performance.

Genesco Inc. has risen higher by an average 11.6% in 21 of those 31 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 67%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Genesco Inc., based on historical prices, is 12 weeks. Should Genesco Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 58% could result.

Incyte Corporation (INCY)

Chart for INCY

Over the next 13 weeks, Incyte Corporation has on average historically risen by 4.2% based on the past 23 years of stock performance.

Incyte Corporation has risen higher by an average 4.2% in 11 of those 23 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 47%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Incyte Corporation, based on historical prices, is 49 weeks. Should Incyte Corporation stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 96% could result.

LHC Group, Inc. (LHCG)

Chart for LHCG

Over the next 13 weeks, LHC Group, Inc. has on average historically risen by 5.1% based on the past 11 years of stock performance.

LHC Group, Inc. has risen higher by an average 5.1% in 6 of those 11 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 54%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for LHC Group, Inc., based on historical prices, is 3 weeks. Should LHC Group, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 67% could result.

Providence Service Corp. (PRSC)

Chart for PRSC

Over the next 13 weeks, Providence Service Corp. has on average historically risen by 21.7% based on the past 13 years of stock performance.

Providence Service Corp. has risen higher by an average 21.7% in 8 of those 13 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 61%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Providence Service Corp., based on historical prices, is 4 weeks. Should Providence Service Corp. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 184% could result.

Prothena Corporation plc (PRTA)

Chart for PRTA

Over the next 13 weeks, Prothena Corporation plc has on average historically risen by 29.1% based on the past 4 years of stock performance.

Prothena Corporation plc has risen higher by an average 29.1% in 3 of those 4 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 75%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Prothena Corporation plc, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Prothena Corporation plc stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 586% could result.

Willdan Group, Inc. (WLDN)

Chart for WLDN

Over the next 13 weeks, Willdan Group, Inc. has on average historically risen by 6.3% based on the past 10 years of stock performance.

Willdan Group, Inc. has risen higher by an average 6.3% in 5 of those 10 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Willdan Group, Inc., based on historical prices, is 28 weeks. Should Willdan Group, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 61% could result.

March 14th Daily Market Comments

Today’s selling continues to demonstrate the indecisive, lack of direction of the markets that has occurred for the past two weeks. The NASDAQ had been showing bullish persistency until today’s little gap down/kicker signal. Unless the markets shows some strong bullish sentiment going into the close, investor sentiment will be proving to be turning bearish based upon closing back below the T-line. The transportation index has been the strong selling indicator for the past two weeks, keeping the other indexes from showing any dramatic bullish activity. It will be important to see how the markets close today. Closes below the T-line will indicate more potential downside with a sideways movement as the best prognosis. Be ready to close out long positions that illustrate weakness. Short positions should be acting well.

March 13th Daily Market Comments

The Dow is down, the NASDAQ is up, and the S&P 500 is flat. No change of investor sentiment. The NASDAQ is the most compelling indicating the potential of a J-hook pattern with it continuing to trade above the T-line. The S&P 500 is trading right at the T-line. The Dow just slightly below the T-line. The lack of any identifiable reversal signals implies the uptrend remains in progress albeit relatively slow. This makes analyzing individual stocks/sectors the prominent analysis. Gold prices appear to be stabilizing. Shipping stocks are showing good strength today.

March 10 Daily Market Comments

The indecisive pullback in the markets over the past week was an indication that there was not any aggressive selling sentiment in the market. Today’s positive trading, especially in the NASDAQ, indicated the markets were ready to turn bullish on any good news. Today’s job report provided that stimulus. If the markets maintain strength going into the close, demonstrating that they will close above the T-line today, there would be good probabilities wave three of a J-hook pattern was starting. Currently the markets are trading at the low end of their range. It will be important for a bullish trend to have strength exhibited going into the close. The T-line remains a critical analytical tool.

March 9th Daily Market Comments

The markets continue to demonstrate a lack of selling pressure. The past week of trading has revealed an indecisive pullback, implying profit-taking versus a reversal. Yesterday’s hard selling in the Dow is being offset by a potential bullish Harami today that might be closing right at the T-line. The prognosis remains the same, as long as there is not a severe sell signal in the market indexes, the uptrend is likely still in progress.

Trending Stocks: BRSS, CVGW, DCO, FMI, LGIH, PBYI

Global Brass and Copper Holdings, Inc. (BRSS)

Chart for BRSS

Over the next 13 weeks, Global Brass and Copper Holdings, Inc. has on average historically risen by 13.3% based on the past 3 years of stock performance.

Global Brass and Copper Holdings, Inc. has risen higher by an average 13.3% in 2 of those 3 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Global Brass and Copper Holdings, Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Global Brass and Copper Holdings, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 278% could result.

Calavo Growers Inc. (CVGW)

Chart for CVGW

Over the next 13 weeks, Calavo Growers Inc. has on average historically risen by 7.9% based on the past 14 years of stock performance.

Calavo Growers Inc. has risen higher by an average 7.9% in 10 of those 14 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 71%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Calavo Growers Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Calavo Growers Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 118% could result.

Ducommun Inc. (DCO)

Chart for DCO

Over the next 13 weeks, Ducommun Inc. has on average historically risen by 6% based on the past 33 years of stock performance.

Ducommun Inc. has risen higher by an average 6% in 18 of those 33 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 54%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Ducommun Inc., based on historical prices, is 9 weeks. Should Ducommun Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 43% could result.

FOUNDATION MEDICINE INC (FMI)

Chart for FMI

Over the next 13 weeks, FOUNDATION MEDICINE INC has on average historically fallen by 13.7% based on the past 3 years of stock performance.

FOUNDATION MEDICINE INC has fallen lower by an average 13.7% in 2 of those 3 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for FOUNDATION MEDICINE INC, based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should FOUNDATION MEDICINE INC stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 135% could result.

LGI HOMES INC (LGIH)

Chart for LGIH

Over the next 13 weeks, LGI HOMES INC has on average historically risen by 18.2% based on the past 3 years of stock performance.

LGI HOMES INC has risen higher by an average 18.2% in 2 of those 3 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for LGI HOMES INC, based on historical prices, is 4 weeks. Should LGI HOMES INC stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 187% could result.

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI)

Chart for PBYI

Over the next 13 weeks, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. has on average historically fallen by 13.5% based on the past 4 years of stock performance.

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. has fallen lower by an average 13.5% in 3 of those 4 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 75%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Puma Biotechnology, Inc., based on historical prices, is 29 weeks. Should Puma Biotechnology, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 98% could result.

March 8th Daily Market Comments

The T-line remains a very vital support indicator. The Dow is currently trading right at that level, the NASDAQ is trading positive today backup above the T-line. Unless there is a dramatic selloff today, it still has to be assumed the uptrend remains in progress as long as there is not a major candlestick sell signal and the market indexes closing below the T-line. LABU is trading backup above the T-line today after yesterday’s Doji day, making the biotech stocks good bullish positions. Continue to have both long and short positions in the portfolio.

March 7th Daily Market Comments

The markets continue to drift lower, with emphasis on the term drift. The Dow, although trading lower, is forming another Doji type trading day, continuing to trade above the T-line. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 are also currently forming a Doji days at the T-line area. The indecisive nature of the daily formations illustrate there is no strong selling pressure. And there has not been a candlestick sell signal in the Dow or the NASDAQ. Anticipate more profit-taking but until there is a dramatic sell signal, the uptrend is likely still in progress.

March 6th Daily Market Comments

The profit-taking of the markets that started last week are still in effect, more so in the NASDAQ with it gapping down and trading lower below the T-line today. The S&P 500 has done the same scenario, currently trading at the T-line. The Dow is trading lower and indecisively but still just slightly above the T-line. It will be important to see how the markets close today, the T-line being an important factor. The uptrend is not shown any confirmed indications that it is over but obviously there is some profit-taking going on currently. Take some profits on the long side and continue to hold a few short positions until there are indications the profit-taking is over.

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