The T-line continues to act as a viable factor. The Dow could not get up through the T-line yesterday and is selling off. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed above the T-line yesterday but Today those indexes have pulled back to test the T-line as support. This demonstrates the lack of any bullish follow-through of yesterday but also illustrates the lack of any major selling pressure. The sideways mode of the market is still in progress as illustrated by the wedge formation. Continue to stay both long and short.
Archives for April 2018
April 26th Daily Market Comments
Yesterday’s Doji in the indexes gave a better view of whether the market was still in a sideways trend or whether the 200 day moving average was going to be the next target, the bottom of the trend channel. Today’s gap up, especially in the NASDAQ, illustrates the lack of any overpowering selling pressure. Although Today’s positive trading reveals the downtrend is now more in a sideways trend, the sideways trend remains the prominent direction until there is a breakout through the upper resistance level. Continue to have both long and short positions in the portfolio provided they are not violating the T-line.
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April 25th Daily Market Comments
The market indexes currently trading relatively flat after trading lower earlier indicates there is still some potential bullishness that is offsetting the selling of the past five trading days. This does not mean an uptrend is about to start, it merely implies that the sideways motion of the market is probably still in progress. Investor sentiment is still on the bearish bias, but not with the aggressiveness of yesterday. Additionally, the transportation index is trading up strong today, not implying a reversal but more of a stabilization in the markets. These conditions continue to warrant having both long and short positions in the portfolio. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.
April 24th Daily Market Comments
Nothing has changed the nature of the market trend, the slow lower drifting is the expectation of the sideways moving market indexes. These market conditions usually do not warrant going after anything aggressively but it allows for the evaluation of chart pattern setups that can be anticipated to be good trades if/when the market turns back up.
April 23rd Daily Market Comments
Wildly unexciting! Although the market indexes are trading slightly positive, they are still trading at the exact same level of where they opened today. The indexes close below the 50 day moving average as well as the T-line on Friday, creating the prospects of a sideways moving market. Today’s lack of conviction is helping to confirm that analysis. Anticipate a boring trading day. Although LABU is forming a bearish McMuffin, a few of the biotech’s are showing good strength.
April 20th Daily Market Comments
As somewhat anticipated, the markets are continuing to consolidate back to the support levels of the 50 day moving average and the T-line. The uptrend remains in progress as long as the indexes stay above the T-line. These are type of days where the uptrend remains in progress but profit-taking is occurring, making the analysis of each individual stock chart more important. Continue to stay predominantly long.
Trending Stocks: DVN, FSLR, ISRG
Devon Energy (DVN)
Over the next 13 weeks, Devon Energy has on average historically risen by 7.5% based on the past 29 years of stock performance.
Devon Energy has risen higher by an average 7.5% in 20 of those 29 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 68%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Devon Energy, based on historical prices, is 4 weeks. Should Devon Energy stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 67% could result.
First Solar (FSLR)
Over the next 13 weeks, First Solar has on average historically risen by 8.9% based on the past 11 years of stock performance.
First Solar has risen higher by an average 8.9% in 4 of those 11 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 36%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for First Solar, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should First Solar stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 144% could result.
ISRG (ISRG)
Over the next 13 weeks, ISRG has on average historically risen by 16.1% based on the past 17 years of stock performance.
ISRG has risen higher by an average 16.1% in 10 of those 17 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 58%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for ISRG, based on historical prices, is 12 weeks. Should ISRG stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 74% could result.
April 30th Daily Market Comment
Today’s positive trading demonstrates the lack of selling pressure but still not enough bullish pressure to breach the upside of the wedge formation. The sideways mode of the markets continue to accentuate the analysis of each individual stock chart versus depending on the market trend to assist in price moves. Both long and short positions should remain in the portfolio. Currently the market indexes are trading above the T-line but still below the downward resistance level.