Archives for February 2018

February 20th Daily Market Comments

The Dow and S&P are trading lower but the NASDAQ is trading higher, not indicating any major change of the current trend. The Dow and S&P 500 may be consolidating for a few days, a bobble pattern between the 50 day moving average on the T-line. Continue to hold long positions that have not indicated a candlestick sell signal and a close below the T-line. There are still a few good shorts working, i.e. RIOT. The next major criteria requires the market indexes to get to new highs before witnessing another major reversal signal. A failure of reaching a new high over the next couple of weeks would put the market indexes in a potential sideways/wedge formation. This would produce a sideways moving market.

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Trending Stocks: DNB, TRIP

Dun & Bradstreet (DNB)

Chart for DNB

Over the next 13 weeks, Dun & Bradstreet has on average historically risen by 4.3% based on the past 22 years of stock performance.

Dun & Bradstreet has risen higher by an average 4.3% in 15 of those 22 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 68%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Dun & Bradstreet, based on historical prices, is 6 weeks. Should Dun & Bradstreet stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 19% could result.

TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Chart for TRIP

Over the next 13 weeks, TripAdvisor has on average historically risen by 8.9% based on the past 6 years of stock performance.

TripAdvisor has risen higher by an average 8.9% in 5 of those 6 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 83%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for TripAdvisor, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should TripAdvisor stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 182% could result.

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February 15th Daily Market Comments

The NASDAQ continues to be the strongest index with Today’s gap up after yesterday’s close well above the T-line. The other indexes are also showing strength but with indecisive trading after they have opened. The uptrend is now considered back in progress as long as the indexes remain above the T-line but expect some profit-taking after the bullish reversal signal of a week ago. Stay predominantly long but be aware there may be some profit-taking today and tomorrow, going into the long weekend.

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February 14th Daily Market Comments

The knee-jerk selling on the open as disappeared. The NASDAQ is currently trading above the T-line, the other indexes are just nudging the T-line. It will be important to see whether all the indexes can get above the T-line Today to confirm the large hammer type signals that occurred on Friday. Any long positions still require the confirmation of the markets closing above the T-line or at the high end of their trading range Today. The big stocks, AMZN, AAPL NVDA are all trading higher, indicating bullish pressure is still in the markets.

 

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February 13th Daily Market Comments

Today’s lack of bullish confirmation in the markets continue to illustrate the indecisive nature of the market. However, although the markets are trading lower, the indexes are trading above where they opened or at the high end of their trading range. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.

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February 12th Daily Market Comments

Today’s positive trading is indicating a possible basing area in the markets. A reversal requires strength going into the close. Currently, the Dow is trading at where it opened after trading higher, demonstrating the lack of bullish follow-through so far today. Any established positions today still warrant being ready to close them back out immediately if the individual stock charts and the market indexes show weakness. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.

 

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February 9th Daily Market Comments

Be careful, although the markets are trading positive today, they are not trading above where they opened. Unless the markets can produce convincing bullish Harami’s Today, the downtrend is still in progress. It is still early in the day, not unusual to see the initial bounce after a big selling day. Remember, candlestick signals are created by where prices open and close. Nothing yet has indicated the Bulls are able to take control. Stay predominantly short until there is convincing bullish signals.

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Trending Stocks: COUP, LITE, MU, SPGI, SWKS, TPR, TRIP

Coupa Software (COUP)

Chart for COUP

Over the next 13 weeks, Coupa Software has on average historically fallen by 4% based on the past 2 years of stock performance.

Coupa Software has fallen lower by an average 4% in 1 of those 2 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Coupa Software, based on historical prices, is 52 weeks. Should Coupa Software stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 45% could result.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE)

Chart for LITE

Over the next 13 weeks, Lumentum Holdings has on average historically risen by 21.3% based on the past 2 years of stock performance.

Lumentum Holdings has risen higher by an average 21.3% in 2 of those 2 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 100%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Lumentum Holdings, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Lumentum Holdings stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 636% could result.

Micron (MU)

Chart for MU

Over the next 13 weeks, Micron has on average historically risen by 16.8% based on the past 33 years of stock performance.

Micron has risen higher by an average 16.8% in 22 of those 33 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Micron, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Micron stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 260% could result.

S&P Global (SPGI)

Chart for SPGI

Over the next 13 weeks, S&P Global has on average historically risen by 5.4% based on the past 45 years of stock performance.

S&P Global has risen higher by an average 5.4% in 30 of those 45 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for S&P Global, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should S&P Global stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 56% could result.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)

Chart for SWKS

Over the next 13 weeks, Skyworks Solutions Inc. has on average historically risen by 4.4% based on the past 45 years of stock performance.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. has risen higher by an average 4.4% in 24 of those 45 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 53%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Skyworks Solutions Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Skyworks Solutions Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 95% could result.

Tapestry (TPR)

Chart for TPR

Over the next 13 weeks, Tapestry has on average historically risen by 14.3% based on the past 17 years of stock performance.

Tapestry has risen higher by an average 14.3% in 14 of those 17 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 82%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Tapestry, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Tapestry stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 184% could result.

TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Chart for TRIP

Over the next 13 weeks, TripAdvisor has on average historically risen by 5.9% based on the past 6 years of stock performance.

TripAdvisor has risen higher by an average 5.9% in 3 of those 6 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for TripAdvisor, based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should TripAdvisor stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 86% could result.

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February 8th Daily Market Comments

Yesterday, the market indexes demonstrated a Doji type day, a day of indecision while still trading below the T-line and the 50 day moving average. The Doji rule made it very easy to anticipate the direction of today’s trading. If the markets continue to show the lack of strength to get them above the 50 day moving average and/or the T-line, it will be assumed the downtrend remains in progress until the next major reversal signal. Short positions need to be maintained as long as they do not close above the T-line. Any long positions established in the next day or so requires continued confirmation of trading bullish.

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