and The Candlestick Forum
Nothing has changed as far as the uptrend continuing. This allows for the identification of the sectors that are participating to the upside or the downside with the most strength. Today LABU has moved up strong indicating the biotech’s are probably an area for bullish trades. The prognosis remains the same. Stay predominantly long with the expectation of rotating out of sectors that are start to show weakness and moving into new strong buying of other sectors.
Were the markets going to exhibit some profit-taking today, tomorrow, Friday? It doesn’t matter! Candlestick analysis makes for very simple stop loss procedures. Those procedures do not involve numeric or percentage factors. The graphics of candlestick signals illustrate whether the Bulls or the Bears are in control. Candlestick stop loss levels are based upon the illustration of whether there has been a change of investor sentiment. This is especially relevant when prices move to an overbought condition.
Chart for CMG
Over the next 13 weeks, Chipotle Mexican has on average historically risen by 9.4% based on the past 11 years of stock performance.
Chipotle Mexican has risen higher by an average 9.4% in 8 of those 11 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 72%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Chipotle Mexican, based on historical prices, is 44 weeks. Should Chipotle Mexican stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 54% could result.
Chart for NVDA
Over the next 13 weeks, Nvidia has on average historically risen by 22.6% based on the past 18 years of stock performance.
Nvidia has risen higher by an average 22.6% in 13 of those 18 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 72%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Nvidia, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Nvidia stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 165% could result.
Chart for ULTA
Over the next 13 weeks, Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. has on average historically risen by 4.5% based on the past 10 years of stock performance.
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. has risen higher by an average 4.5% in 6 of those 10 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 60%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 104% could result.
Disclaimer
How much longer can this market continued to go up? That is what usually is asked by most investors. So what do they usually do? They close out positions/take profits because they think the market has moved up to levels where they are anticipating there could be a possible reversal. What is wrong with that strategy? Because many ‘smart’ investors and ‘intelligent’ money managers closed out positions because of that line of thinking three months ago, six months ago, nine months ago, because they thought the market was too high. Let the market tell you what the market is doing. If you are apprehensive about how much more some of your stock positions could move, there is one logical process. Place stops at levels that would indicate there has been a change of investor sentiment. As of now, there is no change.
25,000+ on the Dow but still not evidence of exuberance. Even today with the markets up strong, numerous stocks are still trading flat or lower. Not necessarily showing any major reversals but merely backing and filling during slow uptrend’s. Today the big stocks, AMZN, AAPL, NVDA etc. are trading higher. The overall trend for many stocks are up but slow, the T-line being the relevant trend support factor. Stay predominantly long but the market nature has been making stock positioning specific to individual stocks and sectors. Take profits where necessary and look for better bullish chart setups.
Chart for AAP
Over the next 13 weeks, Advance Auto Parts Inc. has on average historically risen by 4.6% based on the past 16 years of stock performance.
Advance Auto Parts Inc. has risen higher by an average 4.6% in 9 of those 16 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 56%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Advance Auto Parts Inc., based on historical prices, is 21 weeks. Should Advance Auto Parts Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 31% could result.
Chart for BZUN
Over the next 13 weeks, Baozun has on average historically fallen by 32% based on the past 2 years of stock performance.
Baozun has fallen lower by an average 32% in 2 of those 2 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 100%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Baozun, based on historical prices, is 40 weeks. Should Baozun stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 118% could result.
Chart for DISH
Over the next 13 weeks, DISH Network Corporation has on average historically risen by 15.1% based on the past 22 years of stock performance.
DISH Network Corporation has risen higher by an average 15.1% in 15 of those 22 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 68%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for DISH Network Corporation, based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should DISH Network Corporation stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 99% could result.
Chart for MDGL
Over the next 13 weeks, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has on average historically fallen by 11.4% based on the past 10 years of stock performance.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has fallen lower by an average 11.4% in 8 of those 10 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 80%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should Madrigal Pharmaceuticals stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 84% could result.
Chart for MU
Over the next 13 weeks, Micron has on average historically risen by 14.8% based on the past 33 years of stock performance.
Micron has risen higher by an average 14.8% in 22 of those 33 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%
The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Micron, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Micron stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 154% could result.
Will every candlestick trade be like the INSY trade? Obviously not! But the major benefit provided by candlestick charts is being able to identify which trades have the big potential. Not only to the candlestick charts indicate when to buy, they also provide a high probability format for when to take profits. The candlestick investor always has a very logical/high probability entry as well as exit strategies. INSY is producing big profits but the charts also provide the potential for taking profits. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.
Two major aspects that usually occur on the first day of the trading year. Evidence of what the big-money is going to be buying in the first quarter and the results of profit-taking. This year, neither is being demonstrated. That implies that what was acting well in the final few weeks of 2017 is continuing. There appeared to be some profit-taking on Friday, but today’s buying indicates that any profit-taking that was being pushed into 2018 is not yet occurring. Numerous charts are still showing relevant candlestick patterns that are not being disrupted today. Currently, there is no indication of any major change of investor sentiment or strategies that had already been developing prior to the new year. This merely implies to stay with the current trading strategy until there is something that shows a change of investor sentiment. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.
January 10th Daily Market Comments
Were the markets going to exhibit some profit-taking today, tomorrow, Friday? It doesn’t matter! Candlestick analysis makes for very simple stop loss procedures. Those procedures do not involve numeric or percentage factors. The graphics of candlestick signals illustrate whether the Bulls or the Bears are in control. Candlestick stop loss levels are based upon the illustration of whether there has been a change of investor sentiment. This is especially relevant when prices move to an overbought condition. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.