Archives for September 2016

September 7th Daily Market Comments

The indecisive trading of the market is still in progress except the transportation index is showing a good bullish pattern set up with it strong up move today. This implies investor sentiment, although indecisive, is indecisive in a slow upward manner. Continue to hold the strong sectors. The overall market trend still has to be assumed to be in a slow uptrend as long as the indexes continue to trade above the T-line.

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Trending Stocks: CBPO, CPHD, EOG, JCI, SAGE, SE, WUBA

China Biologic Products, Inc. (CBPO)

Chart for CBPO

Over the next 13 weeks, China Biologic Products, Inc. has on average historically risen by 21.5% based on the past 8 years of stock performance.

China Biologic Products, Inc. has risen higherby an average 21.5%in 7 of those 8 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 87%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for China Biologic Products, Inc., based on historical prices, is 17 weeks. Should China Biologic Products, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 127% could result.

Cepheid (CPHD)

Chart for CPHD

Over the next 13 weeks, Cepheid has on average historically risen by 19.9% based on the past 16 years of stock performance.

Cepheid has risen higherby an average 19.9%in 12 of those 16 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 75%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Cepheid, based on historical prices, is 6 weeks. Should Cepheid stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 176% could result.

EOG Resources (EOG)

Chart for EOG

Over the next 13 weeks, EOG Resources has on average historically risen by 1% based on the past 27 years of stock performance.

EOG Resources has risen higherby an average 1%in 15 of those 27 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 55%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for EOG Resources, based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should EOG Resources stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 91% could result.

Johnson Controls (JCI)

Chart for JCI

Over the next 13 weeks, Johnson Controls has on average historically risen by 3.5% based on the past 31 years of stock performance.

Johnson Controls has risen higherby an average 3.5%in 20 of those 31 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 64%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Johnson Controls, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Johnson Controls stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 31% could result.

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (SAGE)

Chart for SAGE

Over the next 13 weeks, Sage Therapeutics, Inc. has on average historically risen by 23% based on the past 2 years of stock performance.

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. has risen higherby an average 23%in 1 of those 2 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Sage Therapeutics, Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Sage Therapeutics, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 179% could result.

Spectra Energy (SE)

Chart for SE

Over the next 13 weeks, Spectra Energy has on average historically fallen by 1.2% based on the past 9 years of stock performance.

Spectra Energy has fallen lowerby an average 1.2%in 4 of those 9 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 44%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Spectra Energy, based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should Spectra Energy stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 48% could result.

58.com Inc (WUBA)

Chart for WUBA

Over the next 13 weeks, 58.com Inc has on average historically risen by 29.5% based on the past 3 years of stock performance.

58.com Inc has risen higherby an average 29.5%in 2 of those 3 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for 58.com Inc, based on historical prices, is 13 weeks. Should 58.com Inc stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 118% could result.

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September 6th, 2016

Friday’s gap up in both the Dow and the NASDAQ was an indication that strong buying came back into the market after the Dow formed a hammer signal at the 50 day moving average. The Labor Day weekend which indicates the end of the summer, usually has all the traders back to business. As seen in today’s trading, the investor sentiment remains the same indecisive nature as illustrated for the past two months. With the indexes continuing to trade above the T-line, the prognosis remains simple, the sideways mode of the market remains in progress. Continue to evaluate each individual stock chart on its own merits/signals and patterns.

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Trending Stocks: ADPT, APC, MELI, MEOH, VRSN

Adeptus Health Inc Class A (ADPT)

Chart for ADPT

Over the next 13 weeks, Adeptus Health Inc Class A has on average historically fallen by 6% based on the past 2 years of stock performance.

Adeptus Health Inc Class A has fallen lowerby an average 6%in 1 of those 2 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Adeptus Health Inc Class A, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Adeptus Health Inc Class A stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 279% could result.

Andarko (APC)

Chart for APC

Over the next 13 weeks, Andarko has on average historically fallen by 3.1% based on the past 30 years of stock performance.

Andarko has fallen lowerby an average 3.1%in 16 of those 30 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 53%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Andarko, based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Andarko stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 45% could result.

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)

Chart for MELI

Over the next 13 weeks, MercadoLibre, Inc. has on average historically risen by 9.3% based on the past 9 years of stock performance.

MercadoLibre, Inc. has risen higherby an average 9.3%in 5 of those 9 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 55%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for MercadoLibre, Inc., based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should MercadoLibre, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 93% could result.

Methanex Corporation (MEOH)

Chart for MEOH

Over the next 13 weeks, Methanex Corporation has on average historically risen by 1% based on the past 24 years of stock performance.

Methanex Corporation has risen higherby an average 1%in 13 of those 24 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 54%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Methanex Corporation, based on historical prices, is 40 weeks. Should Methanex Corporation stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 17% could result.

Verisign (VRSN)

Chart for VRSN

Over the next 13 weeks, Verisign has on average historically risen by 15.3% based on the past 18 years of stock performance.

Verisign has risen higherby an average 15.3%in 14 of those 18 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 77%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Verisign, based on historical prices, is 16 weeks. Should Verisign stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 93% could result.

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September 2nd Daily Market Comments

The hammer signal yesterday in the Dow bouncing off the 50 day moving average, followed by a gap up through the T-line today is pretty strong evidence the 50 day moving average was the support level target. The NASDAQ also has gapped up from a hammer signal from yesterday. This implies more upside, probably coming out of the sideways market from the past two months. The strong chart patterns continue to work well, i.e. SINA and YY.

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September 1st Daily Market Comments

The summer doldrums drift is still in progress, currently slowly trading to the downside. However, the Dow is currently trading right at the 50 day moving average. It will be important to see whether this level will hold. These market conditions still warrant having both long and short positions in the portfolio.

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Trending Stocks

Bob Evans Farms Inc. (BOBE)

Chart for BOBE

Over the next 13 weeks, Bob Evans Farms Inc. has on average historically risen by 1% based on the past 32 years of stock performance.

Bob Evans Farms Inc. has risen higherby an average 1%in 17 of those 32 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 53%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Bob Evans Farms Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Bob Evans Farms Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 56% could result.

Culp Inc. (CFI)

Chart for CFI

Over the next 13 weeks, Culp Inc. has on average historically fallen by 3% based on the past 26 years of stock performance.

Culp Inc. has fallen lowerby an average 3%in 16 of those 26 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 61%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Culp Inc., based on historical prices, is 46 weeks. Should Culp Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 32% could result.

Interactive Intelligence, Inc. (ININ)

Chart for ININ

Over the next 13 weeks, Interactive Intelligence, Inc. has on average historically risen by 7.9% based on the past 17 years of stock performance.

Interactive Intelligence, Inc. has risen higherby an average 7.9%in 9 of those 17 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 52%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Interactive Intelligence, Inc., based on historical prices, is 20 weeks. Should Interactive Intelligence, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 41% could result.

Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV)

Chart for VEEV

Over the next 13 weeks, Veeva Systems Inc has on average historically risen by 9.2% based on the past 3 years of stock performance.

Veeva Systems Inc has risen higherby an average 9.2%in 2 of those 3 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Veeva Systems Inc, based on historical prices, is 13 weeks. Should Veeva Systems Inc stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 37% could result.

YY Inc. (YY)

Chart for YY

Over the next 13 weeks, YY Inc. has on average historically risen by 7.5% based on the past 4 years of stock performance.

YY Inc. has risen higherby an average 7.5%in 2 of those 4 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for YY Inc., based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should YY Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 180% could result.

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A Lack of Energy in Energy

Oil has been challenging. It started off this year with a really clear bullish corrective wave, but pulled back this summer pretty dramatically. That pullback went to the extremes of an expected Fibonacci retracement and then it looked like the bullish move up was back on track. The last few weeks have seen another sharp drop. We are at a critical level now, right at the edge of Ichimoku Cloud support. If price breaks down through that support, then the overall thesis for an Oil Recovery might be wrong. We’ll know soon. I’m not taking any Oil related trades until the picture gets clearer.

The recovery in Natural Gas is stronger and clearer, but we are in a bit of a complex correction right now. We are above the Ichimoku Cloud and as long as we don’t break down through it, this recovery is still looking good and the price target is still above ~ $3.409.

As the Natural Gas recovery began, back in late June, we called out a trade on WMB at $22.25. This has been a great trade and price is now at $28.05 and we moved our stop up three times and it is now at $25.02, well above the entry price, so we have a winner, the only question is how big?

That’s it for this update. Stay tuned and I’ll continue to give updates- and hopefully we start to see a bit more “energy” in these Energy related commodities.

Dean Jenkins
MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com.

 

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