Archives for June 2016

Although the markets are not selling off great resiliency today, the fact that the markets close below the T-line on Friday after the Doji day of Thursday provides a strong probability the downtrend is likely to continue. Currently the Dow is used the 50 day moving average as support but also has use the T-line as resistance. Until there is a strong reversal signal and a close backup above the T-line, consider the downtrend in progress. There is a possibility of a trend channel in the NASDAQ, making the May lows as a viable target. The oriented more toward the short side in the portfolio.

Morning Member Comments

The NASDAQ gapped down today after yesterday’s Doji day at the same level the NASDAQ topped out in mid April. The NASDAQ is currently trading right at the T-line. It will be extremely important to see where it closes today. A close below the T-line would now indicate a market reversal has occurred, with the pullback possibly coming back down to the lows of May, the bottom of the trend channel. If the markets do not pick up strength going into the close today, start taking profits. Crude oil is trading lower but has not done a reversal signal. Gold continues to trade higher.

Gold prices and crude oil prices are moving up strong today, continuing to make both of those sectors strong profit potentials. The strength of the overall market continues to be a very slow uptrend in progress. However, as long as there is not a severe reversal signal in the indexes, the uptrend should be in progress. Use the T-line as your final trend indicator.

The J-hook pattern in the Dow is confirming today, indicating the uptrend should remain in progress, especially if the trading continues above the T-line. Currently there does not appear to be any great conviction from the buyers or the sellers today. However, this also demonstrates there is not any change of investor sentiment, the uptrend remains in progress.

It does not matter how the political rhetoric spins a dismal jobs report. It is what the investor sentiment interprets the jobs report that is important. Today the markets have pulled back significantly but without forming candlestick reversal signals. This should lead to suspicion that today’s selling is more of a knee-jerk reaction versus a trend changer. Watch to see how the markets finish up the day. Gold and gold stocks are now coming back into play.

The trend analysis remains simple, as long as the indexes continue to close above the T-line the uptrend remains in progress. Currently the NASDAQ is trading right at the highs of April. It will be important to see what type of candlestick formation occurs in tomorrow’s trading, resistance or a breakthrough.

Today’s lower market trading still does not show any significant selling conviction. This is mostly illustrated in the NASDAQ that is currently trading lower but above where it opened today. The Dow and S&P 500 are showing indecisive selling based upon the hammer type signals so far today. The one criteria remains constant, as long as the indexes continue to close above the T-line, the uptrend remains in progress. The only index that is showing any question ability is the Dow. Stay predominantly long. There are a significant number of stocks continuing to trade positive today.