It’s Not Over for Crude Oil Yet

The pullback in Crude Oil has been step and deep, but our thesis for an overall recovery has not been invalidated yet. We’ve gone just below an expected Fibonacci retracement level of between 38.2-61.8%, but as long as it stays above a 76.4% level ($39.42 on the futures contract) then we are OK and should expect a reversal up soon.

Natural Gas is much clearer. In the last update we predicted support between of $2.642- $2.582 and that level held and price is now trending strongly upward with Fridays close at $2.876. All signs point to Natural Gas hitting our target zone of $3.409 – $4.318.

We had called out an entry on WMB at $22.25 and so far, this is looking like a great trade. Fridays close was $23.97 and good entries are still possible for this trade. Stop is still at $19.67 and target price is ~$34.00.

That’s it for this week. I will keep the updates coming. Be sure and let me know if you have questions or comments.

Thanks!

Dean Jenkins

MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com.

 

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas at Important Levels

The Crude Oil chart is following a textbook pattern right now. 10 days ago, in my last update, I said that Oil was in a small correction and projected that it would get down to ~$45.50 – $41.50 before the next impulsive wave up begins. It made it down to that level and is sitting right on the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud, which should provide some support. Then next move up hasn’t started yet, but it could at any time and we will have plenty of time to see it happen and be prepared. When it does start, I’ll give another update and will include some trading ideas.

Natural Gas is still in an uptrend. It has pulled back just a bit, which is normal. I am looking at an initial support level of $2.642, and if that fails, then major support at $2.582.

In the last update I pointed out WMB as a potential trade to play the Natural Gas recovery. I said that if WMB got up to $22.25, I thought that would be a good long entry price. It did hit that level and is now sitting at $23.24. I have a stop at $19.67 and a target price of $29.07. Entries are still possible on this trade at this time. It may pull back a bit, but it has what looks like good support from the Ichimoku Cloud well above the stop price.

That’s it for this week. I will keep the updates coming. Be sure and let me know if you have questions or comments. Thanks!

Dean Jenkins

MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com

 

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Latest Update for Crude Oil and Natural Gas

A few weeks ago I gave an update on Crude Oil and said that we had some evidence that a small corrective wave was beginning. That continues to play out and the levels that this current move down are likely to get to are ~$45.50 – $41.5 before the next impulsive wave up begins. This analysis is supported by both Elliot Wave and Ichimoku Cloud. When you get two different studies giving the same result, that is pretty powerful. I walk through both of these analysis’ in the video.

Natural Gas is continuing in the uptrend that I called out in the last update. Even though it took a pretty big hit today, 7/5/16, the overall trend is still very bullish and we are a long way from the ultimate recovery targets. This too is supported by both Elliot Wave and Ichimoku Cloud and is covered in the video. WMB looks like a nice trade to play Natural Gas with, if it gets above $22.25. If it does get above that level, then the first target for it is $29.07, in about 4-6 weeks, which would be a pretty nice trade.

So, Oil correcting a little and Natural Gas still heading up. I look forward to continuing the updates. Be sure and let me know if you have questions or comments. Thanks!

Dean Jenkins
MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com.

 

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Oil is Headed Up!

No more evidence needed. Oil is headed up!

We had a couple of levels for Oil to go through to confirm the corrective wave up. First was $37.09, and then if there were skeptics, we said $39.03 should put all doubts to rest. We are at $41.01 as of this writing and no doubt remains – the recovery is on.

The targets for Oil remain $62.97-84.87 on the Crude Oil futures contract. Of course, that will take sometime and there will be rallies and pullbacks (Higher Highs and Higher Lows in Dow parlance) along the way. But the evidence is in and the high probability is that it is happening.

I called out a few trades that were good candidates to trade this recovery/corrective wave. WLL had an entry price of $8.57, initial stop of $3.33 and a target of $17.25. The entry was hit and I am in this trade. If new highs are put in, then I will trail the stop up to previous lows. USO had an entry price of $10.33,which was also hit. The stop is $8.10 and I will trail that up as well as new highs are put in.

A new trade idea for this update is TOO (Teekay Offshore Partners.) The fundamental people would cringe at this, but we are technical traders and the Technicals are great! We don’t care why it is going up, just that it is. It could be just a short covering rally and that is fine. The initial entry is just above previous resistance at $6.79, initial stop at $2.62 and a target of $16.09. If new highs are put in, then I will trail the stop up to previous lows. The reward/risk ratio on this is awesome and makes this trade worth taking a look at.

This promises to continue to be exciting (and profitable!) and I will continue to provide updates.

Stay tuned…

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