A Lack of Energy in Energy

Oil has been challenging. It started off this year with a really clear bullish corrective wave, but pulled back this summer pretty dramatically. That pullback went to the extremes of an expected Fibonacci retracement and then it looked like the bullish move up was back on track. The last few weeks have seen another sharp drop. We are at a critical level now, right at the edge of Ichimoku Cloud support. If price breaks down through that support, then the overall thesis for an Oil Recovery might be wrong. We’ll know soon. I’m not taking any Oil related trades until the picture gets clearer.

The recovery in Natural Gas is stronger and clearer, but we are in a bit of a complex correction right now. We are above the Ichimoku Cloud and as long as we don’t break down through it, this recovery is still looking good and the price target is still above ~ $3.409.

As the Natural Gas recovery began, back in late June, we called out a trade on WMB at $22.25. This has been a great trade and price is now at $28.05 and we moved our stop up three times and it is now at $25.02, well above the entry price, so we have a winner, the only question is how big?

That’s it for this update. Stay tuned and I’ll continue to give updates- and hopefully we start to see a bit more “energy” in these Energy related commodities.

Dean Jenkins
MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com.

 

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It’s Not Over for Crude Oil Yet

The pullback in Crude Oil has been step and deep, but our thesis for an overall recovery has not been invalidated yet. We’ve gone just below an expected Fibonacci retracement level of between 38.2-61.8%, but as long as it stays above a 76.4% level ($39.42 on the futures contract) then we are OK and should expect a reversal up soon.

Natural Gas is much clearer. In the last update we predicted support between of $2.642- $2.582 and that level held and price is now trending strongly upward with Fridays close at $2.876. All signs point to Natural Gas hitting our target zone of $3.409 – $4.318.

We had called out an entry on WMB at $22.25 and so far, this is looking like a great trade. Fridays close was $23.97 and good entries are still possible for this trade. Stop is still at $19.67 and target price is ~$34.00.

That’s it for this week. I will keep the updates coming. Be sure and let me know if you have questions or comments.

Thanks!

Dean Jenkins

MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com.

 

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas at Important Levels

The Crude Oil chart is following a textbook pattern right now. 10 days ago, in my last update, I said that Oil was in a small correction and projected that it would get down to ~$45.50 – $41.50 before the next impulsive wave up begins. It made it down to that level and is sitting right on the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud, which should provide some support. Then next move up hasn’t started yet, but it could at any time and we will have plenty of time to see it happen and be prepared. When it does start, I’ll give another update and will include some trading ideas.

Natural Gas is still in an uptrend. It has pulled back just a bit, which is normal. I am looking at an initial support level of $2.642, and if that fails, then major support at $2.582.

In the last update I pointed out WMB as a potential trade to play the Natural Gas recovery. I said that if WMB got up to $22.25, I thought that would be a good long entry price. It did hit that level and is now sitting at $23.24. I have a stop at $19.67 and a target price of $29.07. Entries are still possible on this trade at this time. It may pull back a bit, but it has what looks like good support from the Ichimoku Cloud well above the stop price.

That’s it for this week. I will keep the updates coming. Be sure and let me know if you have questions or comments. Thanks!

Dean Jenkins

MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com

 

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What’s Next for Oil and What’s New?

Last March and April I did a series of blog posts on Oil. I said that the recovery in Oil was confirmed when the Crude Oil Futures Contract went above $37.09. Since then, it made up to over $51, a 45% gain!  I also called out a few trades ideas like; WLL, USO and TOO. The first two were home runs with really nice gains and TOO still has some potential.

Oil now looks like it will retrace a bit before continuing its run up. I expect, based on Fibonacci retracement analysis, that Oil will pull back to between $45 – $41.  After that retracement, the targets are still to between $63 to $83 through the rest of this year and maybe into next.

While we are waiting for the Oil retracement to play out, I like Natural Gas. It is showing nearly the same pattern that Oil did, just lagging by a few months. In the video, I review the pattern on the chart and explain my rationale. The percent gain for Natural Gas has the potential to be really good and I am pretty excited about it.

In the next post, I will point out some Natural Gas related trades that I like a lot.

Thanks and stay tuned!

Dean Jenkins

MBA from the University of Washington. Dean is an expert in Technical Analysis, Money Management, Elliott Wave Analysis and founder of FollowMeTrades.com.

Well, if there were any doubts about the Oil recovery, hopefully those have been put to rest. We initially called out $37.09 (on the Crude Oil Futures contract) as the trigger level that confirmed the recovery in Oil was underway. That was back in early March, six weeks and 12% worth of gain ago.

And it is highly likely to continue up to the projected levels of $63 – $84. It won’t go straight up, but the Technicals are clearly pointing to those levels through this year and next.

We called out a few potential Oil trades as this was playing out;

WLL: Initial entry was $8.57, Initial stop of $3.33, target of $17.25.  We got an entry on that and it is now at $10.84, a 26% profit so far! It is on its way to the target and stop has been raised to $6.56.  Very nice!

USO: Entry was at $10.25, initial stop at $8.13 and a target of $15.75. We got the entry and are at 2% profit with the projection still looking great.

TOO: Entry was at $6.79, initial stop at $2.62 with a target of $16.09. We got our entry and current price is $6.82, a profit of 2% so far. Stop has been trailed up to $4.73.

These trades still look great and there is a high probability of them hitting the targets for really impressive profit.

If you like these updates on Oil and the specific trades, be sure to let us know and we will continue to provide updates.

Thanks!

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Are you Liking the Oil Profits?

Well, if there were any doubts about the Oil recovery, hopefully those have been put to rest. We initially called out $37.09 (on the Crude Oil Futures contract) as the trigger level that confirmed the recovery in Oil was underway. That was back in early March, six weeks and 12% worth of gain ago.

And it is highly likely to continue up to the projected levels of $63 – $84. It won’t go straight up, but the Technicals are clearly pointing to those levels through this year and next.

We called out a few potential Oil trades as this was playing out;

WLL: Initial entry was $8.57, Initial stop of $3.33, target of $17.25. We got an entry on that and it is now at $10.84, a 26% profit so far! It is on its way to the target and stop has been raised to $6.56. Very nice!

USO: Entry was at $10.25, initial stop at $8.13 and a target of $15.75. We got the entry and are at 2% profit with the projection still looking great.

TOO: Entry was at $6.79, initial stop at $2.62 with a target of $16.09. We got our entry and current price is $6.82, a profit of 2% so far. Stop has been trailed up to $4.73.

These trades still look great and there is a high probability of them hitting the targets for really impressive profit. Enjoy this complimentary video on Projecting Price Targets.

If you like these updates on Oil and the specific trades, be sure to let us know and we will continue to provide updates.

Thanks!

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The Case for Oil Just Gets Stronger

Oil has reversed from the minor pull back that has been in place for the last few weeks and turned sharply back up, as expected. The case for the corrective uptrend in Oil just gets stronger and stronger. If Oil takes out the last high of $42.63, look out, it is going to get very interesting. All three Oil trade ideas that we suggested; WLL, USO and TOO still look strong.

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A Couple of Good Days for Oil!

Oil has rallied for the last 3 days. We hope that it continues up and puts in a new high. But, hope isn’t a trading strategy, so we’ll have to see what the reality is. It isn’t all based on hope though, the bullish pattern that Oil is showing is grounded in solid technical analysis and the hypothesis for a recovery has not yet been disproven. The trades that we called out on; WLL, USO and TOO are still looking good, if you buy into the Oil recovery scenario. In the video we review the specific entry, stop and target levels for each of these trade ideas. We’ll provide the next update after the close on Friday and the picture should be clearer then.

Stay tuned…

 

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Oil has been Dropping

Oil has been dropping for several days now. The thesis for a Bullish recovery in Oil is still intact. It would have to go put in new lows before we could say that there is no recovery and new lows are a long way away from current prices. Patience, resolve and discipline are the keys, once again, as we let the market tell us what it is going to do. It will!

Stay tuned…

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Update on Oil

The pullback in Oil continues. $37.09 is still an important support level, with a double bottom forming at ~$37.90 on the 60-minute chart. Bullish divergence is present and the high probability is a resumption of the uptrend soon.

WLL, USO and TOO still look like good trades. It might be prudent to wait for Oil to turn back up before getting into these now. The specific entry, stop and target levels are reviewed on live charts in thevideo.

Stay tuned…

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Nothing to Fear About Oil!

Sure, prices have pulled back for a few days, but that is how price moves in an uptrend, Higher-Highs and Higher-Lows. The high probability is that Oil will quickly reverse back up, before getting down to the support level of $37.09, and continue the uptrend.

WLL still looks like a really good trade. Of course, it pulled back with Oil and that just means a better entry price at this time. Stop is still at $3.33 and will be trailed up when/if a new high is put in.

USO, same story as WLL, pulled back to a better entry. Stop still at $8.10, which I will trail up when/if anew high is put in.

Still really like TOO, but entry is not triggered yet. Waiting for a new high of $6.79 and then will take along position with initial stop at $2.62. If price blows through the entry, then I will trail stop up to about$4.95.

Today is Friday, Good Friday, and a good day to pause and update the week’s price action. I look forward to next week and will give an update on Tuesday.

Stay tuned…

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